Summary, few rules:
- according Lebanese Constitution, the President must be christian (maronite)
- the mandate of the current president Lahoud will end tonight, fri 23 Nov, at midnight
- the opposition suggests as new president Aoun
- the political forces of majority, currently at government with Fouad Siniora, did not accept this proposal: in this case, the Constitution (art.62 and 74) implies that the temporary mandate should be handles by the current government leaded by Siniora
- but Lahoud claimed this government as "illegitimate" because it does not represents all ethnic groups in Lebanon, namely the Shiite Lebanese, since 13 Nov 2006, when Hezbollah-Amal-backed ministers resigned from cabinet to protest the establishment of the international tribunal investigating the assassination of Rafiq Hariri in 2005.
Scope:
today Lahoud ordered the army to enforce law and order throughout Lebanon claiming that "risks of a state of emergency" prevail over the nation. Lahoud said the move goes into effect after his term expires at midnight. The three-article statement signed by Lahoud said: "The risks of a state of emergency prevail over all the territories of the Republic of Lebanon as of Nov. 24. The army is assigned the task of maintaining security and all military forces would be placed at the army's service," the statement added. It said that once a "legitimate government is formed" the army command would coordinate its moves with it.
The vote has been postponed for the fifth time and the new date is set for November 30.
Possible scenarios
- rivals keep on seeking consensus president
- majority's coalition moves to elect president unilaterally
- Lahoud takes action before leaving office
Risks:
- A brand-new bloody civil war
- Political crisis, permanent and neverending
Goals:
- A new President, which means political stability in lebanese lifeday
- Peace
- Are we sure they all want that all? ...
News: Many Lebanese fear a further escalation in the tension would quickly spill into the streets. The army has warned against violence and deployed to guarantee security.
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